The Association Between the 10-Year Risk of the Korean Stroke Risk
Prediction Model and the Carotid Intima-Media Thickness

J Korean Neurol Assoc > Volume 30(4); 2012 > Article

Journal of the Korean Neurological Association 2012;30(4): 274-278.

한국인 뇌졸중 예측모형에 의한 뇌졸중 10년 발생 위험도와 경동맥 내중막 두께의 관련성

정보우, 손효경 a 양진훈 a 이화평 a 이채용

차의과학대학교 부속 구미차병원 신경과, 직업환경의학과 a

The Association Between the 10-Year Risk of the Korean Stroke Risk Prediction Model and the Carotid Intima-Media Thickness

Bo-Woo Jeong

Department of Neurology, CHA Gumi Medical Center, CHA University, Gumi, Korean Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine a , CHA Gumi Medical Center, CHA University, Gumi, Korean

Abstract

Background: Both carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and global risk score of cardiovascular disease were independent risk factors of stroke and heart disease. We assessed the correlation between the 10-year risk of Korean Stroke Risk Prediction model (KSRP) and carotid intima-media thickness. Additionally, from a perspective of carotid IMT measurement following KSRP risk stratification, we analyzed the difference of carotid IMT and plaque according to the KSRP risk strata.
Methods: Subjects were 282 persons who visited one hospital for the screening of stroke. The 10-year risk was calculated automatically based on the equation of KSRP model. The maximal carotid IMT and the plaque were adopted as the study variables. The sensitivity and the positive predictive value of the KSRP risk categories were calculated.
Results: The correlation coefficient between the KSRP risk and the maximal carotid IMT was 0.29 (p＜0.01). The mean (±standard deviation) of KSRP risk of the group with carotid plaque was statistically significantly higher, 5.3 (±4.1), than that of the group without plaque, 3.3 (±3.1) (p≤0.01). The sensitivity of the risk stratum with more than 6% of KSRP risk for the plaque was 28.2%. The positive predictive value of the above cut-point was 48.8%.
Conclusions: The 6% of KSRP risk may be considered as the beginning point of intermediate risk stratum to recommend the carotid ultrasonography. However, generalization needs further studies for various populations. Key Words: Carotid ultrasonography, Intima-media thickness, Korean stroke risk prediction model, Stroke